According to data from market research firm DRAMeXchange, the average fixed transaction price of PC DRAM general products (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) reached $3.90 in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of 50%. This upward trend is not a coincidence. From April to June 2025, the price of this product had already risen by 22.22%, 27.27%, and 23.81% respectively, showing a significant upward trend for four consecutive months. Notably, the average fixed transaction price in July marked the highest level since October 2021 ($3.71).

Price Fluctuations and Reasons

Before this upsurge, DRAM prices had experienced double-digit plunges in September (-17.07%) and November (-20.59%) of 2024. After that, the market entered a relatively stable period until it began to recover in 2025. This previous decline and subsequent recovery reflect the complex fluctuations in the memory chip market due to changes in supply and demand.

The main reason for the current increase in memory chip prices is the significant changes in both supply and demand. On the supply side, major memory manufacturers, such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are gradually planning to discontinue the production of DDR3 and DDR4 memory in the second half of 2025. This production halt has led to a reduction in the supply of older DDR4 products and a change in the market supply structure. On the demand side, PC manufacturers, in response to market uncertainties, are seeking to build up inventories in advance, resulting in a continuous increase in demand. In addition, the rise of the global AI wave has also become a key factor in driving the surge in memory demand. Combined with the ongoing recovery of end-user demand, the memory chip market is accelerating its recovery.

Impact on the Industry Chain

The memory chip industry chain is generally divided into three segments: upstream wafer fabs (such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron), midstream memory module manufacturers and distributors, and downstream end-user markets. The production cut strategy of the upstream fabs has had a direct impact on market supply. Meanwhile, the downstream end-users still have a certain long-tail demand for DDR4 products, leading to urgent inventory building by downstream players, which further exacerbates the supply shortage.

Future Outlook

With the recovery of the memory chip market, the industry is gradually entering a new stage of development. Although short-term market fluctuations are complex and difficult to predict, in the long run, the memory market may not fully follow the typical cyclical patterns of the past but instead enter a new phase where cyclical and structural changes are intertwined. This new phase will be continuously influenced by emerging demands such as AI, and the cyclical characteristics may be weakened or transformed.

The four-month uptrend in the memory chip market is the result of a combination of factors. The production cuts on the supply side and the increase in demand on the demand side have driven the continuous rise in prices. In the future, with the development of emerging technologies such as AI, the memory chip market will face new opportunities and challenges, and its cyclical characteristics may also change.

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